When China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, hosts President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in China this week, it will be more than two years since the two autocratic leaders declared a “no limits” partnership to push back against what they consider American bullying and interference.
本周，当中国最高领导人习近平接待到访的俄罗斯总统普京时，距离这两位专制领导人宣布双方建立“没有止境”的伙伴关系已经过去了两年多时间。这种伙伴关系是为了回击他们眼中来自美国的欺凌和干涉。
Growing challenges from the West have tested the limits of that partnership.
来自西方日益严峻的挑战考验着这一伙伴关系的极限。
Mr. Xi is walking a narrowing tightrope, coming under increasing diplomatic and economic pressure to curtail Chinese support for Russia and its war in Ukraine. A tighter embrace of Mr. Putin now could further alienate Europe, a key trading partner, as Beijing seeks to improve its image in the West, and retain access for Chinese exports to help revitalize its sluggish economy.
习近平正在走一条越来越细的钢丝，面临越来越大的要求中国减少对俄罗斯及其在乌克兰战事的支持的外交和经济压力。随着北京寻求改善在西方的形象，以及为了振兴疲软的经济而保住中国的出口，现在，跟普京越走越近只会进一步疏远欧洲这个关键的贸易伙伴。
“China sees Russia as an important strategic partner and wants to give Putin proper respect, but it also wants to maintain sound relations with Europe and the United States for economic reasons and beyond. It is a very difficult balancing act,” said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar.
上海的国际关系学者沈丁立表示：“中国将俄罗斯视为重要的战略伙伴，希望给予普京适当的尊重，但出于经济和其他原因，也希望与欧洲和美国保持良好的关系。这是非常困难的平衡之举。”
Mr. Putin, for his part, may be testing Mr. Xi’s appetite for risk, as he tries to deter Western nations from more actively supporting Ukraine. Last week, while Mr. Xi was in France meeting President Emmanuel Macron, Mr. Putin ordered drills for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The move was seen as the most explicit warning so far that Russia could potentially use battlefield nuclear weapons in the war, which Mr. Xi has explicitly drawn a line against.
就普京方面而言，在试图阻止西方国家更积极地支持乌克兰的同时，他可能要试探习近平愿意冒多大的险。上周，当习近平在法国会见总统马克龙时，普京下令举行使用战术核武器的军演。此举被视为迄今为止最明确的警告，即俄罗斯可能会在这场战争中使用战术核武器，这是习近平明确表示反对的做法。
普京本月早些时候抵达克里姆林宫安德烈耶夫大厅举行就职典礼。一旦完成新任期的六年，他将成为自18世纪的女皇叶卡捷琳娜大帝以来在位时间最长的俄罗斯领导人。The Russian leader is also likely to press Mr. Xi for more support to sustain his country’s isolated economy and its war machine in Ukraine.
这位俄罗斯领导人还很可能向习近平寻求更多支持，以维持其孤立的经济和在乌克兰的战争机器。
Show of Unity and Strength
团结与力量的展示
Mr. Putin has just celebrated his fifth inauguration as president, setting him up to become the longest-serving Russian leader in centuries if he serves his full term. And Mr. Xi has just returned from a trip to Europe where he was exalted in the pro-Russian states of Serbia and Hungary and wined and dined in France. He left the region without making any major concessions on trade or Ukraine.
普京刚刚举行了他的第五次总统就职典礼，如果完成整个任期，他将成为几个世纪以来在位时间最长的俄罗斯领导人。习近平则刚从欧洲出访归来，塞尔维亚和匈牙利等亲俄国家对他大肆吹捧，法国用美酒佳肴款待他。访欧行程结束时，他没有在贸易或乌克兰问题上做出任何重大让步。
Mr. Xi has met with Mr. Putin over 40 times, including virtually, more than any other leader. The two often exchange birthday greetings and refer to each other as an “old” or “dear” friend. More crucially, they also appear to see in each other a strategic partner in a great geopolitical rivalry and will likely use the talks to depict themselves as leaders of an alternative global system aimed at eroding American dominance.
把视频会晤算在内，习近平与普京举行过逾40次会面，比其他任何领导人都多。两人经常互祝生日快乐，并称对方为“老朋友”或者“亲爱的朋友”。更重要的是，他们似乎也把彼此视为一场地缘政治大竞争中的战略伙伴，很可能利用这次会晤来展示自己作为美国主导地位被削弱的另一种全球体系的领导者。
“The goal is to demonstrate how closely China and Russia are standing next to each other,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington.
华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵说，“目的是展示中国和俄罗斯是多么紧密地站在一起。”
But this solidarity with Russia makes China a target for Western pressure.
但力挺俄罗斯也使中国成为了西方施压的目标。
在访问法国期间，习近平受到了马克龙总统的美酒佳肴款待，并在比利牛斯山脉停留。The United States asserts that Beijing, while not supplying lethal weapons, is still aiding the Kremlin’s war efforts by providing satellite intelligence, fighter jet parts, microchips and other dual-use equipment in addition to filling Moscow’s coffers as a top buyer of Russian oil. Washington has imposed sanctions on a slew of Chinese companies for links to the war, and threatened to blacklist Chinese financial institutions doing business with Russian firms.
美国声称，尽管北京未提供致命武器，但仍在通过提供卫星情报、战斗机零部件、微芯片和其他军民两用设备帮助克里姆林宫的战争，此外，它还作为俄罗斯石油的最大买家填补莫斯科的金库。华盛顿已对一系列涉及俄乌战争的中国企业实施了制裁，并威胁要将与俄罗斯企业存在业务往来的中国金融机构列入黑名单。
Beijing’s tacit support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine has also hurt China’s standing with the European Union. In France, when confronted about the war, Mr. Xi bristled and said China was “not at the origin of this crisis, nor a party to it, nor a participant.”
北京对莫斯科在乌克兰战争的暗中支持也损害了中国在欧盟的名声。在访法期间因为俄乌战争而受到质疑时，习近平怒不可遏地说，中国“既不是这场危机的制造者，也不是当事方、参与方”。
China’s ‘Straddle’ May Be Working
中国“脚踏两只船”的战略可能奏效了
Mr. Xi has made no suggestion that he would use his influence on Mr. Putin to bring the war to an end. And he may feel little need to do so.
习近平并未表明他会利用自己的影响力来结束这场战争。而且他可能觉得没有必要这样做。
China’s strategy of aligning with Russia while attempting to steady ties with the West at the same time, which some have described as a strategic straddle, may be paying off.
中国在与俄罗斯结盟的同时又试图稳定与西方的关系，有人将其称之为“脚踏两只船”战略，这一战略可能正在取得成效。
China’s relationship with the United States, which plummeted to multi-decade lows last year, is somewhat more stable now. And major European leaders continue to engage with Mr. Xi, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, who brought business executives with him on a visit to Beijing last month.
中国与美国的关系在去年跌至数十年来的最低点，现在稍微稳定了一点。欧洲主要国家的领导人继续与习近平接触，包括德国总理肖尔茨，他在上个月带着企业高管访问了北京。
德国总理肖尔茨与中国领导人习近平在北京。The approach is winning more support at home for Mr. Xi. Chinese scholars and think tank analysts see the momentum on the battlefield shifting in Russia’s favor, said Evan S. Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University.
这种做法在国内为习近平赢得了更多支持。乔治城大学研究亚洲问题的教授麦艾文(Evan S. Medeiros)说，中国的学者和智库分析人士认为，战场上的形势正朝着有利于俄罗斯的方向转变。
“For Xi, the strategic straddle is working better than they could have imagined, and China has paid little cost for it,” he said.
“对习近平来说，脚踏两只船战略的效果比他们想像的要好，而且中国为此付出的代价很小，”他说。
Mr. Xi also needs Russia as a counterweight in his country’s rivalry with the United States, which plays out over U.S. support for Taiwan, China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea and access to cutting-edge technology. China and Russia have ramped up military drills in the East China Sea, placing pressure on Taiwan, the self-governed island Beijing claims as its territory.
习近平需要俄罗斯作为对抗美国的平衡力量，这场竞争体现在美国对台湾的支持、中国在南海的领土主张以及获取尖端技术等问题上。中俄在东海加强了军演，给台湾施加压力。北京方面宣称这个自治岛屿属于其领土
“Even if the China-Russia relationship was not as close,” said Xiao Bin, a Beijing-based expert on China’s relations with Russia, “the political elites in the U.S. may not regard China as a strategic partner, but would keep viewing China as a potential threat, even an enemy.”
“即使中俄关系没有那么密切，”北京的中俄关系专家肖斌说，“美国的政治精英们可能也不会把中国视为战略伙伴，而是继续把中国视为潜在威胁，甚至是敌人。”
Putin’s Growing Dependence on China
普京对中国的依赖日益加深
Mr. Putin, however, runs the risk of becoming over-reliant on China to a degree that might have made Russian officials uncomfortable in the past. China has become Russia’s lifeline since the invasion of Ukraine, displacing the European Union as Russia’s largest trading partner.
然而，普京面临着过度依赖中国的风险，达到在过去可能会让俄罗斯官员感到不安的程度。自入侵乌克兰以来，中国已成为俄罗斯的生命线，取代欧盟成为俄罗斯最大的贸易伙伴。
Mr. Putin is still pursuing his own interests. His growing coziness with North Korea, which is supplying Russia with munitions, could result in both countries being less reliant on Beijing.
普京仍在追求自己的利益。他与朝鲜的关系日益亲密，后者向俄罗斯提供军火，这可能让两国减少对北京的依赖。
But amid its isolation from the West, the Kremlin has been left with little choice: Mr. Putin needs China to buy energy, to supply dual-use components such as computer chips to sustain his military, and to provide a currency with which to carry out foreign transactions.
但在与西方隔绝的情况下，克里姆林宫几乎别无选择：普京需要中国购买能源，需要计算机芯片等军民两用零部件来维持他的军队，还需要提供一种用于进行对外交易的货币。
Last year, some 89 percent of the “high-priority” imports necessary for Russian weapons production came from China, according to a customs data analysis by Nathaniel Sher, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Those include everything from machine tools used to build military equipment to optical devices, electronic sensors and telecommunications gear, the analysis found.
根据卡内基国际和平研究院研究员沈宁天(Nathaniel Sher)对海关数据的分析，去年，俄罗斯武器生产所需的“高优先级”进口产品中约89%来自中国。分析还发现，这些产品包括从用于制造军事装备的机床到光学设备、电子传感器和电信设备的一切。
“It’s much more survival mode. You are in a war situation,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and an expert in Sino-Russian relations.
“这更像是生存模式。你正处于战争状态，“卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心主任、中俄关系专家陈寒士(Alexander Gabuev)说。
For Mr. Putin, hedging against China “is a luxury he doesn’t have anymore,” he added.
他还表示，对于普京来说，对冲中国的风险“已经是他消受不起的奢侈”。