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普京访华想从习近平那里得到什么

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DAVID PIERSON
俄罗斯国家媒体提供的一张照片显示,2023年,俄罗斯总统普京和中国领导人习近平在北京。习近平与普京的会晤次数超过了他会晤其他任何领导人。 Sergei Guneyev/Sputnik

When China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, hosts President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia this week, the two leaders are expected to present a united front. But they have different agendas.

当中国最高领导人习近平在本周接待俄罗斯总统普京时,两国领导人预计会表现出统一战线。但他们有不同的议程。

Mr. Putin is trying to escalate his war in Ukraine before Ukrainian forces can receive a replenishment of arms from the United States, and likely wants to know he can rely on China. Mr. Xi will seek to bolster his strategic partner and “old friend,” but is also under pressure to avoid further alienating the West over his support for Russia.

普京正试图在乌克兰军队从美国获得武器补给之前将战事升级,他可能想确认中国是可以依靠的。习近平寻求支持他的战略伙伴和“老朋友”,但也面临着压力,要避免因支持俄罗斯而进一步疏远西方。

Those priorities are the backdrop of Mr. Putin’s two-day state visit, which began in Beijing on Thursday and will include a trip to the northeastern city of Harbin, where a China-Russia trade fair is being held.

这些优先事项是普京为期两天的国事访问的背景。此次访问于周四从北京开始,普京还将访问中国东北部城市哈尔滨,那里正在举办中俄贸易博览会。

Mr. Putin will most likely seek more help from Beijing, which has provided a lifeline to the Kremlin ever since Western sanctions were imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago. China purchases huge quantities of Russian oil and provides technologies that help Moscow withstand its economic isolation and sustain its war machine.

普京很可能会向北京寻求更多帮助。自两年多前西方因俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而对其实施制裁以来,中国一直是克里姆林宫的生命线。中国从俄罗斯购买大量石油,并提供技术帮助莫斯科抵御经济孤立,维持其战争机器。

Mr. Xi considers Russia an important counterweight in China’s rivalry with the United States, but he risks alienating Europe, a key trading partner, at a time when China is relying on exports to revive its sluggish economy.

习近平认为,在中国与美国的竞争中,俄罗斯是一个重要的制衡力量,但在中国依靠出口来重振低迷的经济之际,他也面临疏远欧洲这个重要贸易伙伴的风险。

Here is what to know about the summit.

以下是关于此次峰会需要了解的内容。

A Personal Relationship and a Shared Vision

个人关系和共同愿景

The visit is Mr. Putin’s first foreign trip since winning his fifth presidential election in March. Mr. Xi paid the same respect to Mr. Putin when he made Russia his first foreign trip after securing his norm-shattering third term as China’s president in March 2023.

这是普京自今年3月赢得第五次总统选举以来首次出访。习近平在2023年3月打破常规获得第三个国家主席任期后,首次出访便是前往俄罗斯,可以说向普京表达了同样的敬意。

Mr. Xi has met with Mr. Putin over 40 times, including virtually, which is more than any other leader. The two men have cast their relationship as deeply personal by exchanging birthday greetings and referring to each other as “old” and “dear” friends.

把视频会晤算在内,习近平与普京举行过逾40次会面,比其他任何领导人都多。两人经常互祝生日快乐,并称对方为“老朋友”或者“亲爱的朋友”,将他们的关系塑造成深厚的私人关系。

In Mr. Putin, Mr. Xi sees a like-minded autocratic leader who blames the United States for holding back his country’s rise. The two leaders declared a “no limits” partnership weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in 2022, to push back against what they consider American hegemony.

在普京身上,习近平看到了一个志同道合的专制领导人,前者指责美国阻碍了俄罗斯的崛起。两国领导人在俄罗斯2022年入侵乌克兰前几周宣布建立“没有止境”的伙伴关系,以反击他们所称的美国霸权。

俄罗斯国家媒体提供的一张照片显示,2023年,习近平和普京在莫斯科克里姆林宫举行的晚宴上祝酒。

Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin also view themselves as architects of a new world order free of U.S. interference. The two leaders have promoted multilateral groupings of developing countries like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, so named because it includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, as a way to counterbalance the West.

习近平和普京也认为自己是不受美国干涉的世界新秩序的缔造者。两位领导人推动了发展中国家的多边组织,如上海合作组织和金砖国家(包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非),以作为一种制衡西方的方式。

Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin will likely try to project strength and solidarity during their summit to demonstrate to other countries that there is an alternative to the U.S.-led global system.

习近平和普京可能会试图在峰会期间展示力量和团结,向其他国家表明,除了美国主导的全球体系之外,还有另一种选择。

“Russia-China relations have reached an all-time high, and even in the face of severe international situations, relations between the two countries continue to strengthen,” Mr. Putin said in an interview with Chinese state media published on Wednesday.

“俄中关系已达到历史最高水平,即使面对严峻的国际形势,两国关系仍在持续加强,”普京在接受中国官方媒体周三发表的采访时说。

What Putin Wants

普京想要什么

China has vowed not to provide lethal weapons to Russia, but the United States and Western analysts say China has been aiding Russia with satellite intelligence and fighter jet parts as well as supplying components with both civilian and military uses, such as microchips, machine tools, optical devices, electronic sensors and telecommunications gear.

中国保证不向俄罗斯提供致命武器,但美国和西方分析人士表示,中国一直在向俄罗斯提供卫星情报和战斗机部件,并提供微芯片、机床、光学设备、电子传感器和电信设备等军民两用部件。

Mr. Putin will likely want any such supply of parts and equipment to continue, to help sustain his military’s advances as he intensifies the war effort.

普京很可能希望继续获得此类零部件和装备,以便在他加大战争力度的同时,帮助俄军保持前进的势头。

Russian forces opened a new line of attack in recent days near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. Ukraine’s forces are stretched thin and running short on weapons, but billions of dollars’ worth of arms from the United States are expected to trickle in soon.

最近几天,俄罗斯军队在乌克兰第二大城市哈尔科夫附近展开了新的攻势。乌克兰的武装力量已经捉襟见肘,武器短缺,但美国价值数十亿美元的武器预计很快就会陆续运抵。

Mr. Putin is also expected to seek more trade and business deals.

预计普京还将寻求达成更多的贸易和商业协议。

Mr. Putin has long sought to cement an agreement on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would redirect Russian gas supplies that had gone to Europe toward China instead. It is unclear whether Mr. Xi is interested in the pipeline. Analysts say the Chinese leader could be reluctant because it would travel through a third country, Mongolia, and that it could expose China to potential secondary sanctions and leave it even more reliant on Russia for energy.

普京长期以来一直寻求巩固关于“西伯利亚力量2号”天然气管道的协议,该管道将把原本流向欧洲的俄罗斯天然气供应转向中国。目前尚不清楚习近平是否对该项目感兴趣。分析人士认为,中国领导人有可能不情愿,因为管道将途经第三国蒙古,而且这可能会使中国面临潜在的二次制裁,并使其在能源上更加依赖俄罗斯。

Xi’s Strategic Straddle

习近平的脚踏两只船战略

Mr. Xi has attempted to align with Russia and steady ties with the West at the same time to help his ailing economy, an approach that some call a strategic straddle.

习近平试图在与俄罗斯结盟的同时稳定与西方的关系,以提振中国疲弱的经济,一些人将这种做法称为脚踏两只船战略。

China casts itself as neutral on the war in Ukraine and as a proponent of peace. It has offered a vague, 12-point plan for a political settlement of the war and dispatched an envoy to conduct shuttle diplomacy in Europe.

中国称自己在乌克兰战争问题上保持中立,是和平的支持者。它提出了一个模糊的12点政治解决方案,并派遣了一名特使在欧洲进行穿梭外交。

Western countries have dismissed China’s efforts because they do not call for a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. China also sides with Russia by blaming the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for creating the tensions that led to Moscow’s invasion.

西方国家对中国的努力不以为然,因为中国不要求俄罗斯从乌克兰撤军。中国还站在俄罗斯一边,指责北大西洋公约组织的扩张制造了导致莫斯科入侵的紧张局势。

Mr. Xi’s refusal to condemn the Kremlin’s war has ultimately worsened China’s relations with the West and led to Europe’s growing alignment with the United States on security issues. This makes China’s efforts to head off a trade war with the European Union — over exports of Chinese electric vehicles and market access for European companies — harder for Mr. Xi.

习近平拒绝谴责克里姆林宫的战争,最终令中国与西方的关系恶化,并导致欧洲在安全问题上日益与美国保持一致。这给中国为避免与欧盟爆发贸易战的努力增加了困难,中欧就中国电动汽车出口和欧洲公司市场准入问题存在分歧。

拜登总统与习近平于去年11月在加利福尼亚州举行了会晤,双方关系取得初步缓和。

Tensions are also rising with the United States, testing a tentative détente struck by President Biden and Mr. Xi in November. The Biden administration on Tuesday announced a sharp increase in tariffs on an array of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, solar cells, semiconductors and advanced batteries.

中国与美国的紧张关系也在加剧,这对拜登总统和习近平于去年11月取得的初步缓和的关系构成了考验。拜登政府周二宣布大幅提高对一系列中国进口产品的关税,包括电动汽车、太阳能电池、半导体和先进电池。


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