Narendra Modi once looked up to China. As a business-friendly Indian state leader, he traveled there repeatedly to attract investment and see how his country could learn from its neighbor’s economic transformation. China, he said, has a “special place in my heart.” Chinese officials cheered on his march to national power as that of “a political star.”
纳伦德拉·莫迪一度仰望中国。作为一个对商界友好的印度领导人，他曾多次前往中国吸引投资，并研究印度如何从邻国的经济转型中学习。他说，中国“在我心中有着特殊的地位”。在他以“政治明星”的身份掌握国家权力的过程中，中国官员曾经为他欢呼。
But not long after Mr. Modi became prime minister in 2014, China made clear that the relationship would not be so easy. Just as he was celebrating his 63rd birthday by hosting China’s leader, Xi Jinping — even sitting on a swing with him at a riverside park — hundreds of Chinese troops were intruding on India’s territory in the Himalayas, igniting a weekslong standoff.
但在莫迪于2014年成为总理后不久，中国明确表示，两国关系不会那么轻松。他在自己63岁生日那天接待了中国领导人习近平，甚至和他一起坐在河滨公园的秋千上，然而就在同一时期，数以百计中国军人闯入印度在喜马拉雅山的领土，引发了长达数周的对峙。
A decade later, ties between the world’s two most populous nations are almost completely broken. Continued border incursions flared into a ferocious clash in 2020 that threatened to lead to all-out war. Mr. Modi, a strongman who controls every lever of power in India and has expanded its relations with many other countries, appears uncharacteristically powerless in the face of the rupture with China.
十年后，世界上人口最多的两个国家之间的关系几乎完全破裂。持续的边境入侵在2020年引发了一场激烈的冲突，有可能导致全面战争。莫迪是一个铁腕人物，控制着印度的每一个权力层面，并扩大了与许多其他国家的关系。但面对与中国的关系破裂，他似乎显得异常无力。
As Mr. Modi seeks a third term in an election that begins on Friday, the tensions weigh heavily on the overarching narrative of his campaign: that he is making India a major global power and, by extension, restoring national pride. Far from the 2,100-mile border, along every avenue where India seeks to expand, China looms as a fierce competitor.
随着莫迪在周五开始的选举中寻求第三个任期，紧张的局势严重影响了他竞选活动的总体叙事：他正在让印度成为一个重要的全球大国，并由此恢复民族自豪感。在印度寻求扩张的每一条道路上，中国都是一个强劲的竞争对手，远不仅限于两国3300公里的边境线。
2014 年莫迪生日时在艾哈迈达巴德接待习近平。In India’s own backyard in South Asia, China has used its vast resources — the fruits of economic reforms introduced decades before India’s — to challenge Indian pre-eminence, courting partners through infrastructure deals and gaining access to strategic ports.
在印度自己的后院南亚，中国利用其丰富的资源——这是比印度早几十年实行经济改革的成果——挑战印度的优势地位，通过基础设施交易来拉拢合作伙伴，并获得战略港口的使用权。
More broadly, China and India are vying to lead the developing nations of the so-called global south. When India hosted the Group of 20 summit last year, using it to showcase its support of poorer countries, Mr. Xi skipped the event. China has also been a major roadblock in India’s campaign to gain a coveted permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council.
整体来看，中国和印度正在争夺所谓的全球南方发展中国家的领导地位。去年，印度主办了20国集团峰会，借此展示其对较贫穷国家的支持，但习近平却没有出席。在印度争取梦寐以求的联合国安理会常任理事国席位过程中，中国也一直是主要的障碍。
“Today, you encounter an India which perhaps you had never seen before, in many senses,” said Nirupama Menon Rao, a former Indian ambassador to China and the United States. “I think the Chinese are increasingly aware of it, and they would still like to pull us down, to create barriers.”
“今天，你看到的印度可能在很多意义上都是从未见过的，”前印度驻中国和美国大使鲁帕玛·梅农·拉奥说。“我认为中国人越来越意识到这一点，他们仍然想把我们拉下来，制造障碍。”
India’s estrangement with China has provided an opening for Western nations to expand defense and economic ties with New Delhi, a distressing development for Beijing.
印度与中国的疏远为西方国家扩大与新德里的防务和经济关系提供了机会，这对北京来说是一个令人不安的事态发展。
India signed a series of deals with the United States last year to strengthen military cooperation. India has also drawn closer to the other two members of the so-called Quad, Australia and Japan, as the group works to counter China’s projection of power.
印度去年与美国签署了一系列加强军事合作的协议。印度还与所谓四方对话机制的另外两个成员国澳大利亚和日本走得更近，该机制致力于对抗中国的实力投射。
拜登总统、澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴内塞、日本首相岸田文雄和莫迪在 2023 年所谓的四方对话机制的会议上。In addition, India sees an opportunity as the United States and Europe look for alternatives to China as a place to make their products. One early success has been sharply increased production of iPhones in India.
此外，随着美国和欧洲寻找替代中国的产品生产地，印度也看到了机会。一个初期的成功是iPhone在印度的产量大幅增加。
But even with these openings, China continues to expose Indian insecurities. The Chinese economy is about five times the size of India’s, and China remains India’s second-biggest trade partner (after the United States), exporting about six times as much to India as it imports. China spends more than three times what India does on its military, giving its forces a significant advantage across land, sea and air.
但是，即使有了这些开放，中国仍在继续为印度带来不安全感。中国的经济规模大约是印度的五倍，中国仍然是印度的第二大贸易伙伴（仅次于美国），中国对印度的出口大约是进口的六倍。中国在军事上的投入是印度的三倍多，这使得中国军队在陆地、海上和空中都拥有显著的优势。
The Indian military, which has long struggled to modernize, is now forced to be conflict-ready on two fronts, with China to India’s east and archrival Pakistan to its west.
长期以来一直在努力实现现代化的印度军队，现在被迫在两条战线上做好冲突准备，东边是中国，西边是宿敌巴基斯坦。
Tens of thousands of troops from both India and China remain on a war footing high in the Himalayas four years after the deadly skirmishes broke out in the disputed Eastern Ladakh region, where both countries have been building up their military presence. Nearly two dozen rounds of negotiations have failed to bring disengagement.
在有争议的东拉达克地区爆发致命的小规模冲突四年后，印度和中国的数万士兵仍在喜马拉雅山脉的高处剑拔弩张，两国一直在那里加强军事存在。近二十多轮谈判都未能实现脱离接触。
2013 年，在印度拉达克，中国军队举着写有“你已越境，请后退”的横幅。Although the political opposition has tried to paint Mr. Modi as weak in the face of Chinese encroachment, the border incursions are unlikely to hurt him much politically, given the lack of news coverage from a largely sympathetic Indian media.
尽管政治反对派试图将莫迪描绘成面对中国侵犯的软弱者，但边境入侵事件不太可能在政治上对他造成太大伤害，因为大部分印度媒体都站在他的一边，这些事没有太多新闻报道。
Still, Mr. Modi has had to prioritize billions of dollars for border infrastructure and military upgrades as India still struggles to cover the basic needs of its 1.4 billion people. His government is drawing up plans to repopulate hundreds of border villages as a second line of defense against the constant threat of Chinese encroachment.
尽管如此，就在印度仍要努力满足其14亿人口基本需求的同时，莫迪不得不优先考虑将数十亿美元用于边境基础设施和军事升级。他的政府正在制定计划，重新安置数百个边境村庄，作为抵御中国不断入侵威胁的第二道防线。
S. Jaishankar, Mr. Modi’s external affairs minister, admitted recently that there were “no easy answers” to the dilemma posed by India’s aggressive neighbor. “They are changing, we are changing,” Mr. Jaishankar said. “How do we find an equilibrium?”
莫迪的外交部长苏杰生最近承认，对于这个咄咄逼人的邻居所带来的困境“没有简单的答案”。“他们在变，我们也在变，”苏杰生说。“我们要如何找到均衡？”
In a book published in 2020, just as he had taken over as Mr. Modi’s trusted foreign policy architect, Mr. Jaishankar wrote that the tensions between the United States and China set “the global backdrop” for India’s choices in a “world of all against all.” India’s ambitions as a major power, he wrote, would require a juggling act: “engage America, manage China, cultivate Europe, reassure Russia.”
2020年，苏杰生成了莫迪所信任的外交政策设计师，他在那年出版的一本书中写道，美国和中国之间的紧张关系，为印度在“所有国家对抗所有国家的世界中”，提供了“全球背景”。”他写道，印度要实现成为大国的雄心壮志，需要兼顾：“与美国接触，控制中国，培养欧洲，安抚俄罗斯。”
India’s rise as a large, growing economy has allowed it to hold its ground — working with any partner it can benefit from — in a polarized and uncertain world.
印度作为一个不断增长的大型经济体的崛起，使它能够在一个两极分化和不确定的世界中坚守自己的立场——与任何可以令它受益的伙伴合作。
2020 年印度外长苏杰生与俄罗斯和中国外长的合影。印度一直顶着美国的压力，没有减少与俄罗斯的往来。Even as India has expanded defense ties with the United States and doubled bilateral trade over the past decade, to about $130 billion in goods alone, it has resisted American pressure to reconsider its strong relations with Russia. India has deepened connections with Europe and the Middle East, too; trade with the United Arab Emirates alone has reached $85 billion.
尽管在过去十年中，印度扩大了与美国的防务关系，并将双边贸易额翻了一番，仅商品贸易额就达到约1300亿美元，但印度顶住了压力，没有应美国要求重新考虑与俄罗斯的牢固关系。印度还加深了与欧洲和中东的联系；仅与阿拉伯联合酋长国的贸易额就达到850亿美元。
While India remains wary of becoming a pawn in the West’s fight with Beijing, and has not forgotten its frosty history with the United States, China has become an unavoidable focus after being a secondary threat for much of modern Indian history.
虽然仍然保持警惕，印度不想让自己成为西方与北京斗争中的棋子，并且没有忘记它与美国之间关系冷淡的历史，但在印度现代历史大部分时间里只是次要威胁的中国，如今成了一个无法回避的重点。
India’s socialist founding prime minister was accommodating of Communist China, but the bonhomie was shattered by a monthlong war in 1962 that left thousands dead. The relationship began to normalize in the 1980s even as incursions continued, and open channels of communication kept tensions down and elevated trade.
印度的社会主义开国总理对共产主义中国很友好，但在1962年，一场持续一个月的战争打破了这种关系，战争导致数千人死亡。两国关系在20世纪80年代开始正常化，尽管领土侵犯仍在继续，但开放的沟通渠道缓和了紧张局势，促进了贸易。
“It was a different China,” said Ms. Rao, the former top diplomat.
“那是一个不一样的中国，”前高级外交官拉奥说。
1962 年，印度士兵在拉达克地区与中国军队对峙，两国在这段时间展开了一场血腥的战争。The situation changed in the years before Mr. Modi took office, she said. As its economy soared, China began flexing its muscles — investing heavily in its Belt and Road infrastructure initiative, which India saw as threatening its security and spheres of influence, and moving more aggressively on its borders and in the Indian Ocean.
她说，在莫迪上台之前的几年里，情况发生了变化。随着经济的飞速发展，中国开始展示实力，大量投资“一带一路”基础设施计划，印度认为该计划威胁到其安全和势力范围；中国还在两国边界和印度洋上采取更加咄咄逼人的行动。
Still, Mr. Modi, blacklisted by the United States when he was a state leader over his role in bloody religious riots, continued to extend a hand to Beijing. As prime minister, he did not allow the embarrassment of the Chinese incursion in 2014 to dampen his red-carpet welcome to Mr. Xi. His subtle message — a warning that “a little toothache can paralyze the entire body” — carried the hope that Mr. Xi would come around.
尽管如此，担任古吉拉特邦领导人期间曾因参与血腥宗教骚乱而被美国列入禁止入境名单的莫迪仍继续向北京示好。作为总理，他没有让2014年中国进犯的尴尬影响他对习近平的热烈欢迎。他传达的隐晦信息——“一点点牙疼会导致全身瘫痪”的警告——蕴含着对习近平可能回心转意的希望。
That hope ended with the deadly 2020 clash in Eastern Ladakh. Now, it is clear that New Delhi is resigned to a long-term threat from China, a shift evident in Mr. Modi’s push for road and tunnel construction in border areas to support a large troop presence.
这一希望随着2020年东拉达克的致命冲突而破灭。现在，很明显，新德里已经接受了来自中国的长期威胁，这一点从莫迪推动在边境地区修建公路和隧道以支持大规模驻军的行动中可以明显看出。
中国中央电视台于2021年发布的中印士兵在喜马拉雅山高处对峙的画面，录制于2020年。Over the past five years, more than 2,200 miles of roads have been built along the border. In the Kashmir region, over 2,000 workers have been busy for three years digging a high-altitude tunnel that will improve connectivity to Ladakh.
在过去的五年里，沿着边境修建了3500多公里的道路。在克什米尔地区，2000多名工人忙碌了三年，挖掘一条高海拔隧道，这将改善与拉达克之间的联系。
When the tunnel project, which will cost more than $850 million, is completed, it will ensure that traffic moves year round, and reduce travel time by hours.
这条耗资8.5亿美元的隧道工程完工后，将确保交通全年畅通，并缩短出行时间。
“For four months, the supplies to the Indian Army were cut off because the road would get closed,” said Harpal Singh, the project head. “After this tunnel is complete, that will not happen again.”
“由于道路可能会被阻断，向印度军队提供的补给被切断了四个月，”该项目负责人哈尔帕尔·辛格表示。“这条隧道建成后，这种情况不会再发生。”
Mr. Modi’s government is also trying to revive hundreds of villages along the border to fortify defenses.
莫迪政府还试图重振边境沿线的数百个村庄，以加强防御。
Through a program called Vibrant Villages, the government is working to develop infrastructure, extend services and nurture tourism in the hope of reversing the economic migration that created “ghost villages.”
通过一个名为“活力村”的项目，政府正在努力发展基础设施，扩大服务，培育旅游业，希望扭转造成“鬼村”的经济移民现象。
“What India could have done in the last 20 years, they have to do now in two,” said Sonam Murup, a retired Indian Army officer from Ladakh, referring to infrastructure development in his area.
“印度在过去20年里才能完成的工作，他们现在必须在两年内完成，”拉达克的印度陆军退役军官索南·穆鲁普说，他指的是他所在地区的基础设施发展。
“Our situation is much better now,” he said. “But when you look toward the Chinese side, you can see villages full of lights.”
“我们现在的情况好多了，”他说。“但当你朝中国那边看，你会看到灯火通明的村庄。”