2020-10-30 11:41:22
China’s Communist Party emerged from four days of meetings behind closed doors in Beijing declaring the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, a “helmsman” who would lead “the ship of socialism sailing into the wind and waves with determination.”
中国共产党在北京举行了为期四天的闭门会议，宣布国家领导人习近平为“掌舵”，将会坚定地领导“中国特色社会主义的航船继续乘风破浪”。
At a time when other world leaders remain consumed by the coronavirus pandemic, China promised an economic revival, greater technological self-reliance and a stronger military to protect the country’s economic and political interests.
在其他国家的领导人仍被新冠病毒大流行所困扰之际，中国承诺实现经济复兴，在科技方面自力更生，并加强军事力量以保护国家的经济和政治利益。
The meeting underscored Mr. Xi’s seemingly boundless political control, as well as his ambitions to propel China out of the current crisis into a new phase of growth, less vulnerable to external risks. Here are the main outcomes from the meeting, which outlined policy priorities for the coming years.
会议凸显了习近平看似无限的政治控制力，以及他推动中国摆脱当前危机、进入新的增长阶段、少受外部风险影响的雄心。以下是这次会议的主要成果，概述了未来几年的政策重点。
Economic revival
经济复苏
After the shock from the coronavirus crisis of the first months of this year, China’s economy returned to 4.9 percent growth in the July-to-September quarter, and exports have revived strongly.
在经历了今年头几个月的新冠病毒危机冲击后，中国经济在7至9月这一季度恢复到了4.9%的增长，出口也强劲复苏。
In its five-year plan, China aims to expand domestic markets and encourage innovation across the economy — from cutting-edge technology to more efficient farming — the party leaders said in an official summary of their meeting. That summary did not offer specific growth projections from 2021.
中共领导人在会议的公报中表示，在五年计划中，中国的目标是扩大国内市场，并鼓励整个经济领域的创新——从尖端技术到更高效的农业。公报没有提供2021年以后的具体增长预测。
But be patient: Precedent suggests that the government will issue a more detailed “explanation” of the proposed plan in the next few days.
但是要有耐心：有先例表明，政府将在未来几天对拟议的计划做出更详细的“解释”。
“The economy is improving in the long term,” the Central Committee said, “there is broad social stability, and there are advantageous conditions on many fronts for continued development.”
“经济长期向好，”中央委员会说，“社会大局稳定，继续发展具有多方面优势和条件。”
Homegrown technology
自主研发的技术
Since the Trump administration began restricting China’s access to American technology, Mr. Xi has stepped up calls for China to achieve “self-sufficiency” for crucial components.
自特朗普政府开始限制中国获得美国技术以来，习近平加强呼吁，要求中国实现关键零部件的“自给自足”。
The meeting of the party’s Central Committee declared that China would make enhanced technological self-reliance a priority over the next 15 years. “Insist on the core status of innovation across all of our national modernization,” the leaders said. “Make technological self-sufficiency a strategic pillar of national development.”
中共中央委员会会议宣布，中国将把加强科技自立作为未来15年的首要任务。“坚持创新在我国现代化建设全局中的核心地位，把科技自立自强作为国家发展的战略支撑，”领导人说。
Just what that entails for tech policy will probably not become clear until the full five-year plan is released next year, and Chinese ministries and policy agencies issue their detailed follow-on plans for tech sectors.
可能要到明年发布完整的五年计划，以及中国各部委和政策机构发布详细的科技行业后续计划之后，科技政策的具体内容才会清晰起来。
Mastering the design and production of silicon chips and other parts can be expensive and risk-filled, and industry experts have questioned how far and how quickly China could successfully decouple itself from global suppliers.
掌握硅芯片和其他部件的设计和生产可能代价高昂、充满风险，行业专家质疑中国能在多大程度上，以及多快速度成功与全球供应商脱钩。
“I think a lot of what China is trying to do is to throw a lot of resources — financial resources, human resources — at clearly identified problems,” said Andrew Batson, the China research director for Gavekal Dragonomics, an independent research firm. “A lot of the priorities involve scaling up of existing technologies domestically.”
“我认为中国试图做的很多事情是将大量资源——财政资源、人力资源——投向明确确定的问题，”独立研究公司龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)的中国问题研究总监白安儒(Andrew Batson)表示。“许多优先事项都涉及扩大国内现有技术的规模。”
Cleaner growth — but no date for emissions peak
更清洁的增长——但没有排放峰值日期
China’s five-year plan is about more than economic growth, especially these days when public anger with air, water and soil pollution corrodes confidence in the government. China also faces international pressure to curb its emissions of the greenhouse gases that increase global warming, which have surged past those of other countries for over a decade.
中国的五年计划不仅仅是关于经济增长，尤其是现在，公众对空气、水质和土壤污染的愤怒侵蚀了对政府的信心。中国还面临着国际压力，要求其控制导致全球变暖的温室气体排放。十多年来，中国的温室气体排放量已经超过了其他国家。
Mr. Xi announced in a speech to the United Nations last month that China aimed to reach a peak in carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and would achieve “carbon neutrality” by 2060, meaning that it will no longer be a net emitter of the main greenhouse gas from human activity. Chinese scientists have argued that a peak in emissions could be possible by 2025.
习近平上个月在联合国发表演讲时宣布，中国的目标是在2030年前达到二氧化碳排放峰值，并将在2060年前实现“碳中和”，这意味着中国将不再是人类活动产生的主要温室气体的净排放国。中国科学家认为，到2025年达到排放峰值是有可能的。
The broad summary of China’s five-year goals released on Thursday did not set a year for a peak in emissions, but it said that after China peaks, it will see “steady declines in carbon emissions.”
周四发布的中国五年目标概要并没有设定达到排放峰值的年份，但它表示，在达到峰值后，中国的碳排放量将“稳中有降”。
In the coming five years, the Central Committee said, China would “dramatically improve” energy and resource efficiency, while “total volumes of major pollutants will undergo sustained reduction.”
中央委员会表示，在未来五年内，中国的能源和资源利用效率将会“大幅提高”，同时“主要污染物排放总量持续减少”。
Military modernization and security
军事现代化与安全
The Central Committee declared that China’s military — one of Mr. Xi’s core priorities since taking office in 2012 — had improved greatly, even as it promised to make still more “major steps” to enhance the country’s security.
中央委员会宣称，即便还要迈出更多“重大步伐”加强国家安全，但中国的军事实力已经有了很大提升，这是习近平2012年上台后的核心任务之一。
The committee did not detail any new programs but called for “comprehensively strengthening military training and preparedness.” Mr. Xi has returned to the theme repeatedly in recent appearances with the People’s Liberation Army, as military tensions have risen from the Himalayas to Taiwan and the South China Sea.
委员会没有详细说明任何新计划，但提出“全面加强练兵备战”。随着从喜马拉雅山脉到台湾和南海的军事紧张局势不断升级，在近来与人民解放军的数次露面中，习近平反复提到这个主题。
The committee also called for closer civilian-military cohesion — under the ultimate authority of the Communist Party, of course. “It is necessary to strengthen the national security system and capacity building to ensure national economic security, guarantee the safety of people’s lives, and maintain social stability and security,” it said.
委员会还呼吁更紧密的军民团结——当然是在中共的最高权威之下。“要加强国家安全体系和能力建设，确保国家经济安全，保障人民生命安全，维护社会稳定和安全。”委员会表示。
Why a five-year plan?
为什么要制定五年计划？
Nearly 70 years after Mao Zedong launched China’s first Five-Year Plan in 1953, these plans remain an important blueprint that Chinese leaders use to set out aspirations for economic, social and — these days — environmental progress.
自毛泽东在1953年启动中国第一个五年计划近70年之后，这些计划仍是中国领导人在经济、社会和如今的环境议题上提出进步愿望的重要蓝图。
As China has grown increasingly commercial, the plans have grown less important to some parts of the economy. Still, they help set priorities, especially in areas like energy policy and big infrastructure projects where the state dominates investments.
随着中国变得越来越商业化，这些计划对某些经济领域的重要性有所下降。但它们仍有助于设定优先事项，特别是在能源政策和国家主导投资的大型基础设施项目等领域。
Mr. Xi has shown how important these plans are to him by taking over the drafting process, a job traditionally left to the premier. Earlier this month, the party released rules that tighten Mr. Xi’s power to set the policy agenda. The rules appeared designed to prevent dissension over issues like the direction of the economy, said Holly Snape, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Glasgow who studies Chinese politics.
习近平接手起草过程，说明了这些计划对他的重要性，这项工作按照惯例是留给总理的。本月早些时候，中共发布规定，强化了习近平制定政策议程的权力。这些规定似乎是为了防止在经济发展方向等问题上出现分歧，格拉斯哥大学(University of Glasgow)研究中国政治的博士后桃李(Holly Snape)说。
“This goes right to the heart of how the next five years will pan out,” she said by email.
“这直接关系到未来五年将如何发展，”她在电子邮件中表示。
The Central Committee meeting also discussed China’s goals for modernization by 2035. Some analysts have interpreted that date as a sign of how long Mr. Xi intends to remain in power, having removed the limits on his terms as top leader.
此次中央全会还讨论了中国到2035年实现现代化的目标。一些分析人士将这个日期解读为习近平打算掌权多久的信号，他已经取消了自己担任最高领导人的任期限制。
Ms. Snape noted, however, that such long-term goals are not unprecedented: party officials approved a long-term plan in 1995, when Jiang Zemin was in charge, setting goals up to 2010. Mr. Jiang stepped down from his last formal post in 2004.
然而，后桃李指出，这样的长期目标并非没有先例：1995年江泽民在任时，党内官员就曾通过一个目标设定到2010年的长期计划，江泽民于2004年辞去了最后一个正式职务。
The International outlook
国际展望
Meetings like the ones this week are not a time when leaders typically issue detailed pronouncements on international affairs. So it was no surprise that the leaders did not comment on the United States election or other topics beyond China’s borders.
像本周这样的会议，通常不是领导人就国际事务发表详细声明的时候。因此，中国领导人不就美国大选或中国以外的其他话题发表评论也不足为奇。
Still, the plans depend on their assessment of the international outlook, which they summed up in opaque phrases. The latest emphasized the risks from rising uncertainty, echoing Mr. Xi’s recent warnings that “the world has entered a period of turbulence and transformation.”
但这些计划仍取决于他们对国际前景的评估，并用模糊的措辞进行了总结。这些最新评估强调了不确定性增加带来的风险，呼应了习近平最近对“世界进入动荡变革期”的警示。
“Currently the world is experiencing a major transformation of the kind not seen for a century,” the Central Committee said. “The balance of international forces is undergoing profound adjustment.”
“当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局，”中央委员会表示。“国际力量对比深刻调整。”
It warned: “Instability and uncertainty have clearly increased.”
它警告：“不稳定性不确定性明显增加。”
Amber Wang自北京对本文有研究贡献。
储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者。他成长于澳大利亚悉尼，在过去30年中的大部分时间内居住在中国。在2012年加入《纽约时报》之前，他是路透社的一名记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他 @ChuBailiang。
Steven Lee Myers是《纽约时报》北京分社社长。他自1989年加入时报，曾在莫斯科、巴格达和华盛顿多地进行报道。他著有《新沙皇：弗拉基米尔·普京的崛起和统治》(“The New Tsar: The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin”)一书。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。
翻译：纽约时报中文网
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