2020-10-30 11:20:44
The United States is embroiled in a bitter presidential race and a surge in coronavirus infections. Europe is locking down again. In Beijing, by contrast, Xi Jinping is exuding confidence that he and China can emerge from the pandemic stronger and unbowed.
美国正陷在一场激烈的总统大选中，国内新冠病毒感染病例激增。欧洲再次采取限制行动的措施。相比之下，中国的习近平对他和他的国家能在这次疫情之后变得更加强大、更不屈服而信心满满。
A Communist Party conclave concluded on Thursday with a rousing statement lauding Mr. Xi as the party’s helmsman, affirming his broad mandate as the leader who will steer China through perilous waters for years to come. The meeting of the Central Committee, a council of senior officials, laid out ambitions for China to mature as an economic, military and cultural power despite rising uncertainty abroad.
中国共产党的一次闭门会议本周四结束，会后发表的公报称赞习近平为中共舵手，肯定了他在未来带领中国渡过难关的领导人地位。由高级官员组成的中共中央委员的全体会议，为中国制定了成为经济、军事和文化强国的雄心勃勃的目标，尽管国外的不确定性在不断上升。
With Mr. Xi as the “the core navigator and helmsman,” an official summary from the meeting read, “we will certainly be able to conquer the range of hardships and dangers that lie on the path forward.”
官方发布的全会公报称，有了习近平作为“核心领航掌舵”，“我们就一定能够战胜前进道路上出现的各种艰难险阻。”
Mr. Xi has used the meeting to show that he remains unchallenged and resurgent nine months after the coronavirus plunged China into its worst crisis in decades. Without mentioning the missteps that marred China’s initial response to the virus outbreak, the committee’s 200 or so voting members praised the country’s “major strategic achievement” in largely stifling the outbreak.
习近平利用这次会议向外界表明，在新冠病毒使中国陷入了几十年来最严重危机的九个月后，他的地位依然稳固，而且恢复了活力。中共中央委员会约有200名有投票权的委员，全会公报没有提中国最初在应对疫情上的失误，而是称赞了中国的“疫情防控工作取得重大战略成果”。
The party elite’s show of unity behind Mr. Xi shored up his political dominance and will help him as he pushes for technological, social and economic advances to make China and its ruling party more resilient in a post-pandemic world. China, the party officials said, faces “new tensions and challenges engendered by intricately complicated international conditions.”
党内精英在习近平身后展现出的团结，稳固了习近平的政治统治地位，将有助于他推动科技、社会和经济进步，使中国及其执政党在大流行后的世界更有韧性。中共官员认为，中国面临着“错综复杂的国际环境带来的新矛盾新挑战”。
“He is trying to convince the party that only he, Xi Jinping, has the political resources, the experience and the determination to pull China through,” said Willy Wo-Lap Lam, an adjunct professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong who has long studied Chinese politics.
“他试图说服中共，只有他习近平拥有让中国渡过难关的政治资源、经验和决心，”香港中文大学长期研究中国政治的附属教授林和立说。
As other leaders and nations turn inward, consumed by crises, Mr. Xi appears keen to press the message that the party’s grip on power is secure and the country can play a greater role internationally. Party propaganda has asserted that China’s success in extinguishing Covid-19 infections shows its overall “institutional superiority,” and Beijing has promised to share a potential vaccine for the coronavirus.
在其他领导人和国家受危机困扰，将注意力转向国内的时候，习近平看来很想传递的信息是，中共对权力的控制稳固，中国在国际上能发挥更大的作用。中共的宣传明确肯定了中国在遏制新冠病毒感染上的成功，显示了中国整体上的“制度优势”，中国政府已承诺向多国提供一款潜在的新冠病毒疫苗。
Even so, Mr. Xi must tackle some of the most serious economic and geopolitical challenges China has faced in many years.
尽管如此，习近平仍必须解决中国多年来面临的一些最严重的经济和地缘政治挑战。
The coronavirus crisis has slowed China’s economic growth, increased unemployment and hurt the country’s global standing. Relations with the United States have reached a new low, brought down by disputes over trade, technology and human rights. Western governments have turned against Beijing over crackdowns on protest in the semiautonomous city of Hong Kong and on Muslim minorities in China’s west. Chinese military moves have rattled neighbors.
新冠病毒危机已进一步放缓了中国的经济增长，增加了失业率，损害了中国的全球地位。由于在贸易、技术和人权问题上的分歧，中国与美国的关系已降到了新低。西方政府对北京镇压半自治城市香港的抗议活动，以及大规模拘禁中国西部穆斯林少数民族的做法进行了反对。中国的军事行动已让周边地区不安。
“China has done a pretty good job by itself in putting together a loose, global anti-China coalition,” said Bilahari Kausikan, a former diplomat from Singapore who is now chairman of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore. “I cannot think of any serious country — with a big economy or even some with small economies — that does not have some concerns about China and Chinese behavior.”
“在全球形成一个松散的反华联盟方面，中国自己做得相当不错，”新加坡前外交官、现任新加坡国立大学中东研究所理事会主席的比拉哈里·考斯甘(Bilahari Kausikan)说。“我想不出任何一个认真的国家，无论是经济大国还是经济小国，不对中国和中国的行为有某种担忧。”
With Mr. Xi’s position secure, a dramatic shift in Chinese policy seems unlikely. He is expected to push for another five-year term as the Communist Party’s leader, beginning in 2022, meaning his highly personalized rule could last another decade or more.
随着习近平地位的稳固，中国的政策发生重大改变的可能性似乎不大。预计他将争取再当一任中共总书记，下个五年任期从2022年开始，这意味着，他高度个人化的统治可能会再持续十年或更长时间。
By then, he would have ruled longer than any other Chinese leader except Mao Zedong. Mao was also praised as the “great helmsman,” though in referring to Mr. Xi on Thursday, the committee used different characters for the term helmsman.
到那时，他的统治时间将超过除毛泽东之外的任何一位中国领导人。毛泽东也曾被誉为“伟大的舵手”，尽管周四的全会公报在提到习近平时用了一个不同的字眼。
“This is a big show for Xi Jinping to try to convince the senior cadres that he deserves support to remain supreme leader well beyond 10 years,” Mr. Lam, the analyst, said.
“这是习近平试图向高级干部们展示，他在远远超过十年的未来继续作为最高领导人的地位应该得到支持，”林和立说。
Mr. Xi’s vision for China’s rise rests on strengthening the Communist Party’s reach into society and making technological advances to expand domestic consumption, upgrade industry, clean up the environment and protect the country from security threats. These goals formed the thrust of the party’s plans for the next five years, a draft of which the Central Committee endorsed on Thursday.
习近平对中国崛起的愿景以加强中共对社会的影响为基础，同时靠科技进步来扩大国内消费、升级产业、清理环境，以及保护国家免受安全威胁。这些目标构成了中共未来五年规划的主旨，中央全会周四通过了该规划的一个草案。
“The dominant tone is that China has major opportunities for growth, for managing the process of decoupling in its own favor, and for setting the terms for the next stage of globalization,” said Julian B. Gewirtz, a senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “This is really an extraordinary tone to hear at a moment where it is not just the United States that is continuing to struggle with the pandemic.”
“最显著的调子是中国有巨大的发展机会，有以对自己有利的方式管理脱钩的机会，有为全球化的下个阶段设定条件的机会，”朱利安·B·格维茨(Julian B. Gewirtz)说，他是纽约外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)的中国问题高级研究员。“在不只是美国仍继续在大流行病中苦苦挣扎的时刻，这个调子听起来实在是很不寻常。”
For Mr. Xi, the party meeting highlighted how China’s success in dealing with the coronavirus revived his political fortunes after setbacks early this year. Chinese officials initially played down the threat of the virus, and as infections multiplied, Mr. Xi faced a sharp surge of public anger.
对习近平来说，中央全会上强调的中国在应对新冠病毒上的成功，恢复了他曾在今年早些时候受挫的政治命运。中国官员最初淡化了新冠病毒的威胁，导致了感染迅速增加，一度曾让习近平面临急剧升温的公众愤怒。
Coming less than a week before the United States votes, the Chinese party meeting offered a stark contrast to the raucous wrangling of democratic politics. The Central Committee met behind closed doors, and if there was any internal dissension, propaganda overseers ensured that it did not leak.
在距离美国大选日只有不到一周的时候召开的中共中央全会，与民主政治的喧嚣争吵形成了鲜明对比。中央委员们闭门开会，即使有任何内部分歧，负责宣传的人也会确保不泄露给外界。
After the meeting ended, Chinese television news showed Mr. Xi entering the meeting hall to sustained applause. The officials listening earnestly to his speech did not wear masks, a sign of China’s confidence that it has controlled the virus.
全会结束后，中国的电视新闻播放了习近平在持续掌声中进入会议大厅里画面。认真听习近平讲话的官员们没有戴口罩，表明了中国对病毒已经控制住的信心。
“The contrast between the current state of the United States and China, especially about Covid and the economy, has got to be a huge resource for Xi in terms of domestic support,” said Susan L. Shirk, the chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego, who was a deputy assistant secretary of state in the Clinton administration.
“美国与中国当前状态的对比，尤其在新冠病毒疫情和经济方面，对习近平在国内得到的支持来说一定是个巨大的来源，”加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校(University of California, San Diego)21世纪中国研究中心(21st Century China Center)主任谢淑丽(Susan L. Shirk)说，她曾在克林顿政府担任副助理国务卿。
“We’re in the campaign period for the 20th Party Congress” in 2022, she said. “There is no successor in sight, and every indication is that he’ll want to stay on for a third term.”
“我们正处在为（2022年）的中共二十大作准备的阶段，”她说。“目前还没看到继任者，所有迹象都表明，习近平希望第三次连任。”
Mr. Xi’s move to end the two-term limit on the presidency has held off contention over a potential successor that would otherwise have been in full swing by now, eight years into his tenure. That 2018 decision ignited criticism about the danger of concentrating power in one supreme leader, but now seems to be accepted as reality. Few insiders believe that Mr. Xi will retire in two years.
习近平取消了国家主席两届任期限制的做法，已推迟了有关潜在继任者的争论，否则在他担任国家主席的第八年，这种争论已经会全面展开。2018年的修宪曾引起人们的批评，批评者认为将权力集中在一位最高领导人身上很危险，但人们现在似乎已将修宪视为现实。内部人士中很少有人认为习近平将在两年后退休。
Mr. Xi, 67, has not publicly said how long he wants to stay in office. For now, though, he has made no move to nurture, or at least identify publicly, a successor. He still must build support in the elite for staying on. Mr. Xi’s recent rhetoric, suffused with warnings of risks to China’s rise, appeared to form part of that effort, said Joseph Fewsmith, a professor at Boston University who studies Chinese politics.
现年67岁的习近平尚未公开表示过他想在任上呆多久。但到目前为止，他还没有采取任何行动培养接班人，或至少公开认定一位接班人。他继续留任仍需得到精英阶层的支持。习近平最近的讲话充满了对中国崛起所面临风险的警告，似乎是他争取支持努力的一部分，波士顿大学研究中国政治的教授傅士卓(Joseph Fewsmith)说。
“The case for remaining on can be built around a sense of impending crisis when the experienced hand has to stay,” Professor Fewsmith said by telephone.
“留任的理由可以建立在危险即将到来的感觉上，那时需要让有经验的人留下来，”傅士卓在电话中说。
More pointedly, faced with escalating pressure from the United States, Mr. Xi used a speech this month marking 70 years since China’s entry into the Korean War to warn that “the Chinese people don’t go looking for trouble, but nor do they fear it.”
面对来自美国不断升级的压力，习近平在本月纪念抗美援朝70周年的活动上发表讲话时，用更尖锐的语言警告说，“中国人民不惹事也不怕事。”
The Central Committee said that China would make “major strides” in modernizing its military and would strengthen the training of troops for war readiness. China’s national security apparatus — already formidable — would also be fortified, the committee also said.
全会公报表示，中国将在军队现代化上“迈出重大步伐”，并将加强军队的战备训练。全会公报还表示，中国已经很强大的国家安全机器也将得到加强。
Some scholars have argued that China’s pugnacious approach to foreign affairs — which has drawn accusations that Beijing uses hostage diplomacy and economic coercion— has intensified its geopolitical challenges. But Mr. Xi’s unassailable grip on power suggests few in the leadership would risk proposing a shift in strategy.
一些学者认为，中国在外交事务上咄咄逼人的做法加剧了其面临的地缘政治挑战。这种做法已引发了有关北京使用人质外交和经济胁迫的指责。但习近平对权力不容置疑的控制表明，领导层中很少有人会冒险建议改变策略。
Mr. Xi has also urged China to step up technological “self-reliance,” laying out a new economic strategy that, without closing the door to foreign investors, will try to make China less vulnerable to external shocks. The Trump administration has sought to restrict Chinese companies’ access to American-held technology and prevent Chinese companies from rolling out their 5G smartphone services in the United States and other Western countries.
习近平还呼吁中国在科技上“自立自强”，正在部署一个新的经济战略，在不排除外国投资者的情况下，试图让中国不再容易受外部冲击的影响。特朗普政府已试图对中国公司获取美国人拥有的技术进行限制，并阻止中国公司在美国和其他西方国家推出他们的5G智能手机服务。
In the coming years, China should “make major breakthroughs in crucial, core technologies,” the Central Committee said, “entering the front ranks of innovative countries.”
全会公报说，中国应该在未来几年里在“关键核心技术实现重大突破，进入创新型国家前列”。
Amber Wang自北京对本文有研究贡献。
储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者。他成长于澳大利亚悉尼，在过去30年中的大部分时间内居住在中国。在2012年加入《纽约时报》之前，他是路透社的一名记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他 @ChuBailiang。
Steven Lee Myers是《纽约时报》北京分社社长。他自1989年加入时报，曾在莫斯科、巴格达和华盛顿多地进行报道。他著有《新沙皇：弗拉基米尔·普京的崛起和统治》(“The New Tsar: The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin”)一书。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。
翻译：纽约时报中文网
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